Verschillende keuzen

Je kunt je voorstellen dat Anthony en Betty waarschijnlijk verschillende keuzen zullen maken omdat het met zekerheid aangeboden alternatief 2 miljoen te bezitten Anthony gelukkig maakt en Betty ongelukkig. Let er ook op hoe de zekere uitkomst van de slechtste uitkomst van de gok kantoor huren breda verschilt: voor Anthony is dit het verschil tussen het verdubbelen van zijn rijkdom en niets winnen; voor Betty is dit het verschil tussen de helft of driekwart van haar rijkdom verliezen. Betty is veel eerder geneigd om te gokken, net zoals anderen doen wanneer ze voor heel ongunstige keuzen gesteld worden. Zoals ik het verhaal verteld heb, denken Anthony en Betty geen van beiden in termen van rijkdom als een toestand: Anthony denkt kantoor huren enschede aan winst en Betty aan verlies. De psychologische uitkomsten die zij beoordelen zijn volkomen verschillend, hoewel de mogelijke toestanden van hun rijkdom die zij onder ogen moeten zien dezelfde zijn. Omdat het idee van een referentiepunt in het model van Bernoulli ontbreekt, houdt de theorie van verwachte utiliteit geen rekening met het onmiskenbare feit dat de uitkomst die goed is voor Anthony, slecht is voor Betty. Zijn model is in staat Anthony’s afkeer van risico’s te verklaren, maar niet om Betty’s riskante voorkeur voor de gok te verklaren, gedrag dat bij ondernemers en kantoor huren almere generaals vaak wordt waargenomen wanneer al hun opties onaantrekkelijk zijn. Dit alles lijkt tamelijk vanzelfsprekend. Je kunt je gemakkelijk voorstellen dat Bernoulli zelf soortgelijke voorbeelden had bedacht en een complexere theorie had ontwikkeld om deze voorbeelden een plaats te geven; maar om de een of andere reden heeft hij dit nagelaten. Je kunt je ook voorstellen dat tijdgenoten het met hem oneens zouden zijn kantoor huren nijmegen geweest of dat latere onderzoekers bij het lezen van zijn opstel op bezwaren waren gestuit; maar om de een of andere reden is ook dat niet gebeurd.

590 gedachten over “Verschillende keuzen

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